Hullo fellow independence supporters
hIinglish:
There are many pros and cons.. and indeed considerations to Scotland have our own currency. I hope to outline the majority of them here to give readers information.. again, hopefully, clear informed choices.
The Pound Scots
Pro:
The most clear advantage of our own currency is control of our inflation.. what is inflation? at its nucleus, inflation is when prices get either too high for the average consumer, or prices get too low for businesses to make a profit to compete with larger businesses (multinational conglomerates). Governments have a responsibility to mediate inflation, chiefly to negate it (like it doesn't exist or is nullified) for the average consumer, to empower the consumer to buy as much as possible.This in turn maximizes profit for the many businesses involved.
In short.. we all hate inflation; governments, businesses and consumers.
Being able to set tax rates, interest rates and currency exchange rates, empowers a government enough to control inflation, removing currency control impacts the effectiveness of the measures taken and prioritizes that economy for foreign needs.. like if we had the Euro.. which is a beneficent idea and not necessarily a bad idea for Scotland, especially as the EU is excellent at curbing inflation, but it is entirely possible that Scotland may need to go in the opposite way the EU goes with the Euro.
Not to mention control of Scottish banking.. our own currency means we control our own banks and our national funds.
But a Scottish national currency is higher reward for higher risk and more local flexibility.. it empowers the government more as I have said but then we come to the risk part..
Con:
Currency raiding.. is when a group or a individual with a serious amount of cash begins trading a new currency with a view to deflate it's worth and by doing so, they (could potentially) make tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollar/pounds.. enemies of Scotland could plunder Scotland's wealth without so much as a skirmish.. simply by trading Scotland's currency in large amounts..
How can the be avoided? Ah-ha! This only applies to fiat currencies.. currencies without financial backing.. we in Scotland could stop currency raids dead in its tracks if we are a bullion based currency, gold and silver bullion.
If our currency trades at the same rate as gold and silver, it is those markets that determine our currencies price,, this throws up a wall protecting our currency from raiding.. it's not impossible to raid.. it just becomes very very hard. And tbh not really worth the raids while.. because if they could raid the gold and silver markets.. they would be doing it already.
Thoughts:
Right now the deal with gas and oil companies is a joke. It mocks every Scottish citizen.
Ideally we would have one or two nationalized small oil fields for our own people to keep our prices of gas and petrol down (as we transition to green energy).. and the resources should be sold outright based on estimations done by the Scottish Government..
Sold outright resources (not the land or sea but only the resources).. upfront payment based on estimates done by the Scottish Government .. North Rona oil field estimated at 200 Billion.. so the Scottish Government sells the resources at 150 Billion and no tax..but must be paid upfront in full.
That 150 Billion then goes into Gold and Silver Bullion..
Rockall
.. and when we crack open Rockall, at around $2 trillion dollars worth.. while researching this I found out there is a dispute about the ownership of Rockall.. which is weird as I was just about to suggest this (see following) before knowing about the dispute..
The Personifications...
Let's get our Norwegian half-brothers and half sisters to do the actual extraction and give them 5% after cost, our French cousins to distribute it to Europe (first offer/refusal to a French oil company.. plus no tax for upfront payment, 5% to the French Government).. the remainder split half between Alba and Eire, we are twins.. and I don't really care about a stupid fight and want to see my twin sister profit greatly.. it would be great if she would offer the same for her patch of the trench.. we could go all in and split it between us 50/50.. doesn't matter who had the most, just share and not care like we should.. but if it would start a fight then no.. I wouldn't see it suggested to her. Love her too much.. I'm at the point I just want to give her money, make sure she has a little extra in the bank.
That leaves 900 Billion dollars in Rockall alone for Scotland.. more than enough.. significantly more than enough to have our own currency. The annual wealth of Scotland (not simply tax but everything) is $202 Billion dollars so more than four times what we need to cover our currency costs.
Cons:
The Westminster governments have done deals with oil companies to drip drip money in the form of tax.. this is clown shoes on a super model; dumb. I worry the Scottish Government in the independent Scotland would do the same.
Money upfront is the smart way to do things.
The Euro
Not the world ending disaster some would make it out to be.. in fact the Euro has many pros. The main con is as above.. the inability to curb inflation.. but since the EU is excellent at curbing inflation, we consumers don't have to *really* care about that too much.. but it would be nice if we could go a step further and control this, but not essential.
Pros
Inflation is managed by the EU, which have a track record of well managing this. It is near impossible to currency raid.. as the trading bloc is too large..
The main advantage to the Euro is cultural .. we never need to currency exchange when traveling in Europe. This is a very friendly thing to do.. prices would be the same as back home pretty much and we are already familiar with those brand equivalent prices.
Prices to houses stay the same. Prices for goods stay the same. It is a lateral move to adopt the Euro.. with two caveats that I'll come to now..
Cons:
Without our own currency we cannot generate our own wealth the same way.. its complicated to explain but.. we are acting as guarantor for any currency we enter into.. our oil, our gas, our green energy becomes a guarantor of sorts to that currency. Joining the Euro.. might mean we ask a levy for the guarantee we help assure on the Euro .. and so the EU would have to pay us a levy.. and they *may* not like that. Sure they will let us in for free.. its is very beneficial for them to do so.. but if we charge them say 500 million to 1 billion Euros a year as a levy.. erm they probably won't like that.
Greece.. we see what currency raiding does without it *actually* happening..Greece almost bankrupted the Euro.. the EU are still having problems with Greece last I checked (2018)..What if another EU country near bankrupted the Euro?.. it is scary.. but it is also less likely if Scotland joins the Euro..as I said we become guarantor..so we would become Europe's 'bank' along with Germany and France.. we would be able to say yes and no.. be able to cut off a country's bail out package.. say no when no is needed.
Does this benefit the people of Scotland.. not very much in exchange for what is offered.. but we are building bridges here and compromises must be made.. besides where-ever my sister is (Ireland) I want to go also..
Thoughts:
Pros and Cons aside.. the transition to the Euro would be an entirely smooth one. Moving to the Pound Scots is a bumpy adventure in comparison and we don't know what ghosts wait in what closets.. The Euro all in is a lateral move.. giving up a medium slice of control in exchange to ensure said smooth transition.
I didn't point this out specifically.. but really should now.. Scotland has just under 1/3rd of ALL of Europe's Green Energy .. this goes into the mix as guarantor .. its not a light thing to offer the EU and we should definitely receive a levy payment imho.
Norwegian Krone
Erm.. unlikely, our half brothers and sisters would accept us in this (but you never know.. they loved us enough to offer us a place on the Nordic council.. which was WOW, thank you so much! <3 ).. if they did.. we would become one of the richest currencies in the world, if not thee richest currency in the world..
Our both low population compared to GDP and the fact no one is going to try raiding the Krone..
Pros:
Richest currency in the world (probably). Quality of life (QoL) would skyrocket for both countries.
Cons:
Both countries pulling in opposite directions.. erm.. Norway has a style of unbridled inflation.. complicated to explain here, but everything is expensive.. everything.. and they like it that way, it's how their governments generate cash.. its smart.. very smart way of doing things.. but definitely wouldn't suit Scotland. We like things cheap.. and if we don't get it cheap; we do without.. or go and hunt for it at the price we like for hours.
The Pound Scots pegged to The Pound Sterling
Dumb, dumb dumb.. ohw man this is dumb! But why would any government do this? Because the people don't understand how all this works and..
Q: Wait! your high and mightiness..then why don't you explain how this works??
.. and they panic. OK.. I'll have a crack at this, although I feel I have touched on many of the points already..
People start panicking that they won't be able to sell their house for the same price they bought it and be able to clear their mortgage.. which generates more panic and house prices start to crash and people are willing to take less and less for their houses.. it becomes a buyers market.
In turn this effects/affects interest rates.. which as a knock on effects/affects inflation and so knocks on to businesses .. with me so far?
The government doesn't want to peg its new currency to another.. so imagine this..
People panic = crashing house market = interest rate change = higher inflation = harder for people to be consumers = businesses have less cash and less power = unemployment rises .. all of this weakens the new currency.. unless it is pegged to another.
Solution:
Don't move house until the currency is bullion backed with at least 200 billion dollars of gold/silver.
That simple. Don't move house.
It'll take around 5 to 10 years for the Pound Scots to stabilize once the Bullion has hit 200 Billion dollars worth.. so talking 15 to 20 years..?
But people don't like to hear this.. on the other hand.. if you want your children/grandchildren to grow up and work in a ultra successful country with good wages and plenty of jobs.. don't move house and stop being a baby.
We done?
Q: Well calling people babies for wanting to move house is a bit much.. but otherwise yeah that was straightforward to understand.
Summation
While its easy to say this or that on this topic.. the actual topic itself is complicated for people to understand at a glance. Ultimately it would be nice to have our Pound Scots back.. giving us control of our own fortunes.. good or bad.. and I think that's what many people want.. me? .. I hover around 50/50 Pound Scots/Euro.. slightly leaning towards having our own unpegged currency so we can control our own inflation.. but make no mistake I am terrified of being currency raided.. so then I start to think about the Euro and how attractive it is and without that same risk.. the Euro is doubtedly to me.. a lateral move, the safe bet.. but having our own currency while risky.. due to our unique circumstance of resource vs population.. we could maximise an already very rich reward.
Peace
Dava
Ah'll dæ a Scots version when Ah kin bæ bothered.. knackered the noo and need a haud o` a pal tæ help him wæ PC stuff.
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